What happens when a new and useful technology meets the mass market at prices affordable by the masses? The image of a mobile phone is likely to be there in most minds – not that some products like medicines or biotech-agri products are less important in such a category.
If we carefully mull over the reasons for the dominant imagery, we realize that the mobile phone is a separate class in itself as far as modern day innovation goes. We are witnessing an information tool evolution akin to biological evolution, but in the compressed timeframes governed by Moores Law. Most people mistake it for a revolution. If electromagnetic spectrum is the oxygen of telecom, what has become extinct in this ‘evolutionary’ process? - Do you remember pagers? I last used one till 2002 – mobile phone services were not quite cheap and ubiquitous then.
Over the next decade we should see an increase in ‘intelligence’ travelling over communications networks. The share of voice service may not decline in absolute terms but there exists enough trigger for the rapid uptake of new services involving video and computer data over a converged single device and eventually over a converged telecom network.
So what is the point we are expected to notice from this insight? The answer is simple – it is human need and human endeavour which bring to life the truly path breaking mass utility innovations. Mobile communications deliver on the promise of getting one in touch with another instantaneously – and this is because most can now afford to subscribe to a mobile phone connection. Similarily, the national broadband project holds the promise of delivering instant internet to the constituencies served by present mobile phone networks within a few years. The implications of this development probably cannot be fully comprehended at this stage. This measure has the potential to harness the dormant and unutilized creativity, endeavour and entrepreneurship of millions who are not in the digital information mainstream, starting from the micro levels of village enterprise.
So how does our society benefit other than economically? When even a quarter of a billion minds are able to connect instantaneously, transparency levels expected and demanded in politics and governance will force imposition of operational efficiencies in our democratic setup. News would no longer be NOIDA based (presently depends upon the range of fuel tank of TV channel OB vans). Most importantly, the quality and reach of education will increase exponentially. The next quarter billion minds would be connected in half the time – or even lesser.
The prognosis? India has irrevocably entered the age of being an information superpower. Its demographics will ensure that it will be able to contribute to global economy by smart, innovative and affordable products and services. No expertise will remain unharnessed.
Our lesson from this story? Start retraining NOW to survive in the new economic and social environment - it has already arrived. And be useful to as many as possible – or be prepared to be replaced. This is also a law of evolution.
