HOW MICROGRID APPROACH TO ELECTRICITY COULD HELP THE GOVERNMENT ?

In a world where geopolitics is an outcome of geo-economics which in turn has energy as its single largest component, it is no rocket science to figure out that an economy can be expected to run only as long it's fuel tank is full. The only way to overcome energy risk is to conserve and optimise energy use, reduce or eliminate dependence on imports by developing domestic resources including renewable energy and invest in energy efficiency research. This is easier said than done. However, if our Government(s) lead by example, we can witness immediate results. The Central & State governments in India together have the funds, expenses and employee population comparable to a small rich country. Between just two central ministries, Defence and Railways, there is enormous scope of energy savings by power savings alone.

An indicative potential of 1 GWh annual power savings in Government departments is a realistic and achievable target in the current plan period itself. The trick lies in adopting the microgrid approach. Additional benefit accrued is acquiring carbon credits by use of renewables, which could be monetised to enhance savings to the state. The capital investments could thus be designed to be recoverable more or less by the end of one Plan period. More importantly, the power infrastructure could acquire a high level of resilience against central failures including from cyber-attacks.

Just how would savings be generated? The characteristic of the microgrid approach is distributed generation. This way there is no all pervading effect of a failure in central generation facility and a sharp reduction in transmission losses is achieved as power is produced and consumed locally. The Government inventory includes a few million generators of various capacities. These are mostly used in standalone mode to power the loads. Since the generation capacity is rarely matched to the load, there is an inevitable wastage of fuel. The microgrid approach leads to generator-load matching by use of intelligent controllers and energy storage devices which reduce the requirement of running the generators. Use of renewables in a microgrid further enable reduction in generator use. With good practices, it is feasible to achieve recurring energy savings in the 20-30 % band consistently. When we consider the supply chain logistics involved in fuel transportation, a 20-30% drop in generator fuel requirement could lead to higher cost savings due to reduced logistic effort and expense. In case of Defence and Internal Security organisations, this is a significant potential saving. Assuming only a third of an organisational fuel budget is earmarked for purchase of generator fuel, 10% of the total fuel budget could be saved imparting user the flexibility to deal with enhanced vehicle usage demand or an unanticipated budget cut. A similar saving in power bills of grid electricity consumption could be expected.

The question which arises now is - what is required to adopt this approach? The solution to any issue commences with the acceptance that a problem exists. In this case, the Government has to legislate that a certain percentage of power in our energy mix should mandatorily be generated from renewable sources and consumed by every Government department. The microgrid approach could be adopted in organisational engineering practice and incentivised with clear targets and timelines. Once it is absorbed in the system as a practice, it could be taught in the relevant schools of instruction and be embedded in the culture of the beneficiary organisation.

Most good ideas are often lost behind impenetrable trade jargon quoted by 'experts'. Even if someone at the 'top' understands it, it is unlikely to be implemented because of perceived complexity. Microgrid approach is a method to impart some degree of power assurance and control to the user while significantly reducing losses. Hence it is important that the rationale of microgrids is understood by the layperson end user. Only then can we expect to hear the murmurs for change, Strength Five.

WHAT IS THIS MICROGRID APPROACH ?

A 'Grid Interactive' Microgrid

For all my friends who are not too interested in technology, I hope this post meets part of  their requirement.

Consider a village which has several small rain-fed water tanks and wells with a cumulative three days supply of normal daily water use. The village gets a water truck every day from the nearest town where there is a large water source. Since the road is long and prone to disruptions, the village does not get water for some days at a stretch. The people of the village have accordingly adopted a practice that the day their water supply does not come, each family reduces it's water consumption to drinking, cooking and essentials. Baths are postponed. The aim is to stretch the village tank reserves as long as possible to cater for longer disruption. This way the three day water tank reserves serve the village for 7 days. In 7 days, either the water supply resumes or evacuation of the settlement is organized after appreciating the size and extent of disruption.



                           An 'Off Grid' Microgrid Arrangement

If we substitute 'water' with 'power', the same practice is the fundamental basis of the microgrid approach. The wells correspond to the DG sets, rain is the equivalent of renewable energy generation and the water tanks are equivalent to energy storage devices. They are linked together by pipelines which serves each household exactly like generators, storage and consumers are connected by a local 220V/50 Hertz electricity transmission lines to form a microgrid. The water supply arrangement to the village by truck corresponds to the grid power supply - it may not exist in many cases in actual situation (an off-grid condition in power jargon). The practice of using water only for essentials on learning about water supply disruption is known as 'load-prioritization'. The duration for which the village can subsist after 'load-prioritization' is known as the 'Autonomy' of the village. The switch to usage of local water reserves on disruption of water supply from town is known as 'Islanding'. The switch back to supplied water on resumption of water truck arrangements is equivalent of 'Grid Restoration'. The act of using part of water supply to recharge depleted water tanks is exactly like recharging batteries or other forms of energy storage devices. If the village receives plentiful rain and a very large water tank is constructed to store the runoff, it may become perennially autonomous for water. Also it would be in a position to supply water to the town instead of importing it. This is a design decision. Similarly a microgrid can be perennially autonomous by design and export surplus power to the grid.

The concept is neither new nor original. In India we have been practicing this approach in various walks of life to overcome resource scarcity and uncertainty. It has worked well through the ages and is embedded in our culture.This is the approach adopted to electrify remote villages in India and neighbouring countries, Africa and Latin America. In the easiest terrain, it costs Rs 6-7 lakhs to build a km of low voltage distribution line of the kind which supply our homes. An entire village microgrid can be installed at a cost of Rs 4-5 lakhs per Kilowatt using solar panels and lead acid batteries. If LED bulbs and DC fans are used, A 2 Kilowatt microgrid is adequate for a village. A tubewell may require 6-12 Kilowatts in contrast.

Considering the fact that long distribution lines to villages rarely carry power for more than a few hours, the conductors are prone to theft. It makes no commercial sense to have them in first place as cost of establishment and maintenance is high, longer wires mean more resistive losses, more power theft and theft of power cables itself. The revenue from poor settlements just does not exist. As a result the microgrid model using prepaid metering is sustainable commercially and ideal for community development.

In my next post I will cover the advantages of microgrid approach in Government assets. Thank you for bearing with me.

STORY OF AN EMERGING 'POWER'

This is one story no patriotic Indian would like to hear. Thanks to our media, especially the print media, many of us now know where we are going wrong in bringing power to the consumer.

The problem is not simple and has many facets and interrelationships. In a nutshell, we did not have enough power for our needs as a nation. This meant less productivity, less comfort and inevitably an inequitable distribution of power due to revenue realisation factors. But this was the old story.

The new story which has emerged is that huge and adequate generation capacity was created to meet the projected demand, which is now lying mostly idle due to two main reasons. The first reason is that the states don't want to purchase power as they are not presently capable of stopping power theft for whatever reasons.This means that the cost of power purchase is greater than the selling price.This difference is cumulatively so huge that significant public money has been used to write-off the losses. The second reason is even more interesting. The Government cleared creation of generating capacity but is unable to provide fuel linkage to power producers. And it so happens that enough indigenous fuel is available but controlled by either Govt monopoly as in case of coal or by a few private players who are least interested in providing it at legislated prices, as in case of gas. This situation is not likely to unravel soon inspite of recent corrective policy measures.

If we dig deeper, we discover that power is only a subset of energy. And the overall energy sector is beset with woes, many of which are of our own making. This is not surprising since we don't have a single common energy ministry to start with - instead we have Coal, Power, New &Renewable Energy and Petroleum ministries. There could still be some co-ordination if at the legislative level there were a departmental Parliamentary Standing Committee on Energy. Unfortunately for India, even this is not so.

The story of this emerging power called India is not a lack of resources but a lack of accountability, planning and execution at multiple levels. With this as background, the ideal contemporary practice identified to improve our power resource utilisation is an approach called the Microgrid. It is not a product but a method, an arrangement or even a philosophy of optimally  utilising available generation resources, including renewable generators, on prioritized loads. Importantly it places a degree of control in the hands of the user community. In our context it holds promise to provide energy access in remotest areas as well as energy assurance. With integration of renewable energy generators, the full potential of a microgrid is exploited leading to significant savings in fossil fuel consumption.

I will cover the principle of Microgrids in my next post. It is adequate to say that having examined the concept, it took no time for me to get converted to an ardent follower of the Microgrid philosophy. It delivers real tangible results immediately. At many places we already have it but we may not be calling it that. If Gandhiji were alive today, he would have gladly agreed that it gives 'swaraj' to the user community. Hopefully our leadership will eventually hear of this and understand it's significance Strength Five.

Distributed but Connected

A couple of decades back, there was a great degree of relish in getting Mangoes from Malda, Litchis from Dehradun or Almonds from Srinagar. Each region and sub region in India was distinct and known for it's own local culture, dialect and flavours. Since connectivity and transportation were limited in reach and availability, people spent most of their time in a limited area leading to evolution of the region's uniqueness in most aspects. Each region's unique produce was valued as an exclusive item in other regions. Diversity was a way of life. Be it production of food and goods, or irrigation and water storage, things happened in a distributed and sustainable pattern. Local problems found local solutions with local laws and local adjudication.

The effect of industrialisation and Western way of life was to create a homogeneous and connected nation where anything could be produced anywhere in identical manner and transported to any place quickly. People migrated, cultures mixed and regions decreased in pre-eminence. Local culture got replaced by the ubiquitous media and city culture in the newer generations. Large, central projects became the order of the day at the cost of regional capabilities and knowledge, be it power, irrigation, education, healthcare, production of goods or delivery of services and governance. The control over the destiny of a regions populace shifted from local bodies to central bodies. Central systems and control superceded local systems and autonomy.

Along with this change characteristic of industrial age came the attendant problems of failures of central systems affecting large areas simultaneously, thus overwhelming mitigating capabilities and resources. An influential coterie had to capture power at only a few points of power to gain control over the lives and destiny of a large number of people. Mega scale of doing things led to mega disasters and amplified risks. The mega employment centres caused large migration from vast rural areas to a few urban centres with limited space, leading to a struggle for existence and rising crime. The reason was centralisation of resources.

It was recognised by the intellectual community that the answer for better human existence lay in geographic decentralisation of powers and resources so as to reach the regions and sub regions of the country. The regional communities had to be empowered to flourish at home and only move by choice. They had to be economically empowered by means of better physical and electronic connectivity to extend the reach of their produce , goods or services, globally. A former President of India even named and supported a Government initiative called PURA - an acronym for Providing Urban amenities in Rural Areas. This kind of society 'Distributed' in form yet 'Connected' in practice can effectively find it's own innovative solution to every conceivable challenge, individually or collectively.

We hope this insight is available constantly and consistently to every responsible citizen so that our collective actions make this challenging aim a reality. Let us take our minds back to political slogans to which India actually connected - Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan and even Jai Vigyan. The aspiration of any citizen does not lie in getting the most, it lies in being treated equally with equal access to opportunity. When this is accepted by the nation's leadership, we would have moved closer to our tryst with destiny which commenced on 15th of August, 1947.

 

Confirmation of Prognosis

In my post of 16 Oct 2011, I made some broad observations on some things to come. The newsarticle reproduced above is a confirmation of one aspect. This is an example of good intellectual reporting which enhances the credibility of our print media.

End of an Age

The 21st of December 2012 did not mean a literal end but an ancient civilisation's cosmic calender completed an age. It's symbolic value is important in times of rapid changes in the world - political, economic, social and scientific. Human mind is subject to rapid bombardment of information from increasingly electronic means leading to instantaneous responses, not all of which prove to be correct. With this as the backdrop, we must make a conscious effort to take some time off to reflect on the very purpose of our existence and how best we can be a useful and integrated part of our society. Where possible, choose simplicity over complexity. Shun cynicism and embrace honesty. It should make life manageable and happier.

At the dawn of New Year 2013, I wish you and your loved ones, happiness and contentment in the times ahead. May you best all challenges and help others in need. May you give more even as you recieve.

Happy New Year 2013 - no conditions attached!

ONE INCIDENT -MANY VIEWS

I don't know how many individual Olympic medals has India won, but I suspect that there are many individuals alive who alone exceed that number each by a comfortable margin. I also don't know how much money has been spent on the Olympic quest since Freedom, but I suspect that it is more than the current annual budget of some small medal winning nations.

If the ratio of Olympic medals won to the money spent in India is considered, I am sure it would be the most expensive piece of metal by weight ever.

In this backdrop we hear our top medal winner threatening to leave his employer, the Indian Army, if he is not promoted to a Commissioned Officer. Army officers, serving and retired, lost no time in pulling up our hapless protagonist for his insubordinate behaviour and pontificate that ranks have to be earned and rewards are to be given and not asked for. Most people found this expression quite perplexing, patronizing and maybe even distasteful. And they are saying so freely in national media. Welcome to the age of instant judgement.

For an organisation which prides itself for it's man-management expertise, this incident is a reminder that all is not well with it's human resource policies. However what is more confounding is the near total absence of  planning to deal with such situations and total lack of credible and decisive response when the reports started filtering in. The authorities did NOT have a plan of action in place. They still have not given any credible information or reaction to the people through the media. One wonders who is in charge?

Our protagonist asked for something do-able and probably promised by someone at some level - the President's Commission. It may not amount to a lot financially compared to offers from the private sector, but in terms of honour it is unparalleled. Rubbing shoulders with fellow competitors, it would be very satisfying to be aware that one has been rewarded by the nation with something which cannot be compared with monetary rewards - the nation acknowledged that he carried the honour of his people with great sense of responsibility and did them proud.

Our 26 year old protagonist is not trained in politically correct public speaking and so his simple rustic utterances have been interpreted in every possible manner with some even suggesting his dismissal (as if all these people were flawless Gods in their military careers). The older generation cannot be faulted as the social and value systems of the armed forces were different in their unit service days. The present aspirational generation of soldiers is the product of present value system and information society. They don't accept things at face value and won't follow blindly. This has to be accepted and factored in man management techniques. Outrage is merely a sign of 'Generation Gap'.

Since the achievement of the young marksman is singularly exceptional, it does cross my mind that we could possibly acknowledge his contribution better by nominating him to the Rajya Sabha. That may not happen immediately , but when the time does eventually come, would the Indian society support his nomination as it supports his demand for the President's Commission? In terms of achievement alone, this boy from a village in Himachal deserves to be a visible symbol of aspirational India even though he would not have the exposure or audacity to even think about it in his present position. This should legitimately be given impetus by our political leadership. They would get to prove that it is not only the elite and rich sportspersons who get nominated to the parliament, but an ordinary Indian who did something extraordinary for his nation could also hope to be honoured in the inclusive spirit of our great Constitution.

I hope this message of mine is heard STRENGTH FIVE by our decision takers.

Jai Hind.

How do you see it?

EMPOWERING OURSELVES

         When I see the angst in people across continents due to their elected governments failing to match their expectations, I ask myself how much governance do we really need? If the current running establishment of the governments were halved, would one feel any impact other than huge cost savings? This probably depends on which parts gets shed. For a population which aspires to get a secure Government job, this thought  would sound discomforting. But the fact remains that the sooner and as many functions we can shift from the Government to the society and free enterprise, the faster we will grow economically due to the time dividend and flexibility in operation. While job assurance would not exist, opportunities would multiply promoting efficiency and enterprise in society. Lazy worker would then be an oxymoron rather than the reality. 

            Having said that, how could we possibly achieve this? A possible beginning could be creation of self supporting democratic institutions embedded in the society – not the kind of parasitic bodies on Government dole adapted to reward loyalists with jobs which entail no contribution to the nation. Industrial houses have long had working models for social outreach activities. Remodelling our PSUs as enterprises with minority Government holding could provide it with the missing competitive spark and decision ability. Removing caste based reservations in higher learning institutes is another positive action that could be taken. Trimming down the public dealing mechanism assisted by enhancing IT presence in repetitive tasks and introducing mandatory cooling down period after a public(money) interaction appointment of two years appear to be implementable ideas. 

            The private mega- enterprises with organizations resembling the government in size and bungling have already read the writing on the wall and adopted an outsourcing model. Their cost savings are quantifiable and the pitfalls are also recorded. If the political leadership wills it, it can be adopted in government reasonably fast. Finally, it is not too many measures which make a huge difference to the society. It is those few measures which affect every man directly every day, that reduce the stresses on the society and make daily life a happier experience than what it is currently.

That is the way to hear the signal of progress 'strength five'.

Applied Randomness

Who is the best? There can be no absolute answer to this question. The answer is relative to the frame of reference selected for measurement at that moment. So the comparison between Gavaskar and Tendulkar will be fallacious since they don’t have any common comparable experience.

Who are the elite? The elite are certainly not the best as the best is yet to come – a fact true in any age. The elite are a bunch of people, not necessarily talented, who by circumstance are in proximity to and in association with power of any kind. The elite traditionally think themselves to be God’s gift to the minions and promote the destiny of people who confirm their greatness, apart from their own kith and kin.

The fact is that many people with equal or more potential do not meet the opportunity which can catapult them to the hallowed strata and even displace incumbents. But some people do and they are celebrated as success stories to emulate. However, emulating the enabling opportunity is not in one’s hands.

The education system attempts to impart us with disciplined thinking while the moral teachings attempt to impress that there is a straightforward relationship between cause and effect. However, even a cursory look at nature reveals that the universe, including human life, is ultimately ruled by randomness. Hence the challenge lies in understanding randomness and using it for our benefit. By internalizing the lessons learnt from randomness one can successfully scale even the divide between proletariat and elite.

With this perspective, I would like to draw your attention to the currently occuring events, globally and locally, and look forward to sharing your analysis of any specific event which you have noticed with great interest.

The Technology Vision

          The danger of worshipping tradition lies in institutionalizing intolerance of creativity and original thought. If no two living beings are alike, how can one expect two people to have identical perspective? In scientific endeavours, it spells the death knell for advancement. There is an open debate whether the scientific bureaucracy has been good for the nation or an impediment in development of scientific thought, capacity and capability.

          Scientific bureaucracy often espouses a certain technology vision and then finds itself unable to achieve it in the useful timeframe. When the vision, if achieved, materializes, it is good only as an academic exercise as the world has already moved on. In short, the taxpayers money gets wasted on useless pursuits. But the establishment stoutly defends it’s actions and talks of it as a continuation of our glorious scientific tradition which can be traced to, perhaps, the invention of ‘zero’. And then it asks for more funds. That is when the citizen asks whether we should throw more good money after an obviously bad proposition.

          Nowhere are these issues more manifest than in strategic projects, be it related to Energy, National Defence or Electronics. As an economic power we haven’t created capabilities to make our own microprocessors of the kind we use in millions of devices, we don’t have indigenous sensor technologies for our commercial and military use, we don’t make indigenous weapon systems which we can sell in international market, our ship and submarine building skills are dependent on foreign help and our aerospace manufacturing capabilities are not commensurate to the time and resources devoted to it. Also, we have a seriously limited capability in commercial nuclear power generation. In the nation of telecom revolution, almost the entire supply of components and designs are imported.

          More amazing is the lack of adequate institutionalized check on which commercial technologies are being procured by various wings of the Government. For example, an industry veteran shared with glee that obsolete SDH  technology was being procured for Government IT and telecom projects when the world had moved on to packet networks, giving his company a new lease of life. To be fair, the same Government had directed that future IT procurement should be IPv6 compliant instead of existing IPv4. But somewhere it forgot to tell people to buy only packet technology for present and future networks.

          The commercialization of indigenous technologies is nothing to write home about. In most cases it is a face saver dependent on Government patronage so that the effort and resource invested is not perceived as a waste. To overcome the issues of an obviously below par scientific bureaucracy, there is a pressing need for reforms which will expectedly be opposed by the ‘holy cows’. What we get is a direct function of what we are willing to accept. If we don’t accept pedestrian standards, we will get better value for our tax money. For example, doing away with reservation in Government employment in scientific positions could be a good start. We could have contractual employment terms with compensation on par with the commercial world, giving us the ability to engage only the desirable elements and holding on to the performers. Holding the establishment accountable to a parliamentary panel for the program results in desired timeframe could be another useful measure. Government investment in private sector industry R&D could also speed up innovation and industrial capacity creation to meet strategic objectives. We should not invest in reinventing the wheel but in developing vital future technologies and a dynamic scientific human resource base.

          The research done in academic institutions has traditionally delivered tangible results on shoestring budgets. Why it cannot be replicated in the scientific establishment is food for thought and agenda for action. Intellectual and creative abilities are not the preserve of the chosen few who once gave an entrance exam. A person who can mug up a dictionary is not Shakespeare or comes close to him, if the essential creativity is missing. Talent is constantly evolving and is available at all ages and skill levels, independent of geography. This implies that option of lateral entries in scientific bodies may generate better hiring choices compared to the traditional ‘entrance test’ approach.

          In the coming year and times ahead, let us champion meritocracy in scientific thought, clarity in scientific vision, essential needs of the population in scientific endeavours and sustainable self reliance in technological enterprise. Because, in the final analysis, one has to work to achieve his or her destiny – and nations are no exception. 

Show Me The Face And I Will Show You The Rule

            An interesting observation about our way of functioning is our ability to conjure up different rules and interpretations for dealing with cases which would logically demand identical treatment. The official phraseology for this phenomenon is ‘Case-to-Case-Basis’. We are able to easily rationalize the irrational by drawing congruence with celestial insights like ‘Change is the only constant’ drawn from irrefutable sources like the Bhagwad Gita.

            Be it appointments or postings, licenses or charge sheets, nursery admission fees or membership of an organization, human nature manifests this phenomenon regularly in our daily lives. It probably sustains an entire industry as it directly leads to employment of lawyers, judges and their administrative staff. They certainly would not wish it to go away. On the contrary, your lawyer would help you to obtain an existing convenient judgement to support your case for a desired outcome. Of course, time is not a dimension in the legal frame of reference.

            If one follows the adage ‘Change begins with oneself’, there is a real danger of being classified as a romantic fool. It is the classic situation in which one is looking towards others to take the first step and see what happens to them. This is exactly why we have social and political structures empowered to make laws, interpret them and most importantly, implement them. If the implementation is not as expected, we have a right as well as a duty to hold this apparatus accountable and bring about the necessary change.

             Just as a candle maker is not expected to invent electricity, people in their comfort zone are unlikely to correct themselves. The actions of the civil society, however maligned or imperfect, are a direct result of the pent up angst in the society. The only way is to attenuate it is to bring about visible efficiency and objectivity in functioning. Irritating corruption really irritates. And combined irritation of over a billion can spell disaster. One does not mind not having a thing as long as the rule applies to all and there is a sincere attempt to help you get it.

            This thought is not only for those in public service, but for every single citizen regardless of profession or economic standing. The day we think we should go ahead and do it regardless of what others may think, we would have become the agent of the change we all want - and we will have the self respect we crave for.

           How about trying it once?

LIMITS FOR CONSENSUS

The Editor of Economic Times caustically observed in his editorial of 8^th December, “Consensus of all stakeholders is a Chimera. If

Independence had waited for consensus among the sundry rulers of India’s princely states on ending their own rule, we would still be singing God save the Queen.”

          One of the challenges faced by leadership at any level in any field including family matters, is decision taking by building consensus. While the idea itself is sound and desirable, the real impediment threatening decision taking is individual interpretation of the word ‘consensus’ by each party. Authority is given to execute a responsibility with accountability. This authority can be obstructed by motivated recourse to dissent in the process of decision by consensus. By deliberate intent, many worthwhile decisions are known to have been delayed to the point that the action window for a proposal ceased to exist leading to the classic fait accompli situation. My nearly three year old daughter recently recited during a her nursery rhyme ‘remix’ session, “Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall – Johnny, Johnny had a great fall”.

          This insight does not require elaboration. So to be truly effective we may not seek to be politically correct when the need of the hour is to be professionally honest. The integrity of execution of the approved plan depends on a few key people who can be given advice but should not be held hostage to the vagaries of consensus building after the plan has passed muster.

While seeking constructive opinion, we require to spell out the extent to which consensus is sought – no more and no less. The resolve of the leadership to execute the task should be heard Strength Five.

If I Could

When we open our newspaper and read that our elected representatives are battling unknown demons to grant us the ‘Right-to-’ education, food etc, it suddenly strikes us that once upon a time we already had all that. We could once drink tap water safely – today each household requires a water purifier. Why? What are we paying taxes for if we can’t be given essentials? Right to information is a poor substitute for Right-to-clean-drinking-water. Why is it that we operate own power plants at home in form of inverter and generator? Why do we have to get stuck with our own satellite dish or cable when a simple Yagi antenna can do the trick as it did over two decades back? Be it security guards or primary education, the list is only increasing. We are living in middle of civilized world and not in a remote outpost.

          The answer may lie partly with us. Seemingly the Government policies are deeply influenced by commercial interests of lobbies. Otherwise why has satellite television replaced terrestrial broadcast in India where there was enough dark fibre to economically connect every TV tower required to cover  99% of population. For the remaining 1%, satellite television was required. How come our ‘unbiased’ media did not question something which was right in it’s yard? Since media is a ‘business’ charged with a ‘social responsibility’, no guesses on what takes precedence.

          Now that we have the required critical mass of educated and well informed people across the length and breadth of the country, it is time we put the prospective people’s representatives through the paces before casting our vote. The right to represent people has to be earned, not bought by inducements and unkept promises. Ultimately elected representatives  represent our collective character and will – and we should have no reason to complain if we did not exercise due diligence when we could.

          Make the effort NOW and ensure better governance. It will become a habit in times to come.

The Next Decade

What happens when a new and useful technology meets the mass market at prices affordable by the masses? The image of a mobile phone is likely to be there in most minds – not that some products like medicines or biotech-agri products are less important in such a category. 

            If we carefully mull over the reasons for the dominant imagery, we realize that the mobile phone is a separate class in itself as far as modern day innovation goes. We are witnessing an information tool evolution akin to biological evolution, but in the compressed timeframes governed by Moores Law. Most people mistake it for a revolution. If electromagnetic spectrum is the oxygen of telecom, what has become extinct in this ‘evolutionary’ process?  -  Do you remember pagers? I last used one till  2002 – mobile phone services were not quite cheap and ubiquitous then.  

            Over the next decade we should see an increase in ‘intelligence’ travelling over communications networks. The share of voice service may not decline in absolute terms but there exists enough trigger for the rapid uptake of new services involving video and computer data over a converged single device and eventually over a converged telecom network. 

            So what is the point we are expected to notice from this insight? The answer is simple – it is human need and human endeavour which bring to life the truly path breaking mass utility  innovations. Mobile communications deliver on the promise of getting one in touch with another instantaneously – and this is because most can now afford to subscribe to a mobile phone connection. Similarily, the national broadband project holds the promise of delivering instant internet to the constituencies served by present mobile phone networks within a few years. The implications of this development probably cannot be fully comprehended at this stage. This measure has the potential to harness the dormant and unutilized creativity, endeavour and entrepreneurship of millions who are not in the digital information mainstream, starting from the micro levels of village enterprise. 

            So how does our society benefit other than economically? When even a quarter of a billion minds are able to connect instantaneously, transparency levels expected and demanded in politics and governance will force imposition of operational efficiencies in our democratic setup. News would no longer be NOIDA based (presently depends upon the range of fuel tank of TV channel OB vans). Most importantly, the quality and reach of education will increase exponentially. The next quarter billion minds would be connected in half the time – or even lesser.

            The prognosis? India has irrevocably entered the age of being an information superpower. Its demographics will ensure that it will be able to contribute to global economy by smart, innovative and affordable products and services. No expertise will remain unharnessed.

Our lesson from this story? Start retraining NOW to survive in the new economic and social environment - it has already arrived. And be useful to as many as possible – or be prepared to be replaced. This is also a law of evolution.

THE FIRST INDIAN

There was an informal air of bon homie and a cheerful buzz at the India International Centre in Delhi. A largely elderly bunch of sophisticated  men and women chatted over coffee as a few children from an American school assembled quietly inside the auditorium at 6 PM on the 16^th of September. The occasion was the felicitation of the first Indian to circumnavigate the globe alone in a sailboat – and be alive to tell the tale. The Minister of State for Defence was in attendance along with present and past Naval Chiefs and a healthy number of distinguished people as also the press.

            What followed in the next two hours was truly mesmerizing by any standards. Rarely does one come across such a perfect blend of old time eloquence with the understated achievement of the present. Commander Dilip Donde was undoubtedly the star of the evening but the Admirals on the podium held their own with their wisdom and wit.

So what was the big deal?

            The evening was rich in honest and easy to assimilate narration of a lifetime of experience of some of the best and most successful examples of the Indian Navy’s officer class. And the underlying theme was that no dream is too big and no task impossible. There was a distinct assertion of national pride and a pledge to do more. The spirit was infectious and each one was charged with enthusiasm. And the igniting line was a simple statement from one of the distinguished speakers explaining why adventurers like Commander Donde did what they did,

“ Human nature does not seek reward – it seeks challenge”

            I heard him Strength Five. I agree with him. What about you?

Will We Rise To The Occasion?

The last few months have seen a dynamic transformation in the nation’s consciousness, a reawakening of our sense of destiny and a resurgence of confidence and will exercised by Indians in every corner of the globe.

A combination of Global circumstances, economic and political, have placed Indian smack in front of an opportunity to assume a leadership role in helping shape the Global destiny. In relative terms, India seems better governed based on the outcome of unprecedented greed and avarice of a group of capitalist cronies who have a disproportionate influence over the governance and lives of citizens in the ‘developed’ world.

The question is – will we take this opportunity to realize our national destiny and true potential?

Today we are one of the largest and fastest growing economies. But are we truly productive and efficient by global standards? The answer is ‘not yet’. What can we do to become efficient? Remove regulation? It would be a scene resembling a busy intersection in Delhi when traffic lights are not working and there is no policeman around. The scene would be no different if 50 policemen from different departments were trying to regulate traffic at an intersection usually managed by one or two policemen. The answer lies in having required and effective regulation. Participation of the affected civil society is a must in this exercise.

As our education level rises and we have better access to electronic media, our awareness level has increased and is influenced realtime. This has led to two remarkable phenomena, one is increasing demand for transparency and accountability in public life and the other is a lack of patience and attention span to give issues their due consideration. This has led to emergence of a new art of ‘Media Management’. Here we as citizens and also those in governance, media and judiciary need to be diligent in arriving at correct assessments, however distasteful, and support the institutional credibility. It is difficult to build and maintain institutions but relatively simple to discredit it.

We are supremely conscious of our fundamental rights and can find faults even with Mahatma Gandhi. We probably should recognize that history always judges in hindsight and views change with time. We would also like to remind ourselves of our Fundamental Duties to our family, society and nation. We don’t have to wait for someone in the parliament to start the change. We can start with ourselves. Others who agree and appreciate will follow suit.

By expanding our ego to include our nation in our definition of self, national interest would automatically be self interest. And all actions taken for national interest would not be against our self interest. Good or bad, lawmakers are our elected representatives. Let us not accept gratification for votes and then see the difference in governance.

Finally it is not what we observe that will make a difference to our lives, it is what we do. Enlightened action only can help us achieve our destiny. May this message be heard Strength Five.

LEARNING FROM EXPERIENCE

         One of the unintended imperfections of the present system of BUY projects could be a lack of clarity in procedures leading to procurement.This should get resolved eventually. Take the case of a telecom or IT network project in the Services as an example.The QRs would be made and vetted within the ambit of MoD whereas the Govt of India has a specialist ministry and organisation to assess telecom and IT networks. The Scientific Advisors at various levels of MoD have their limitations as the Services have learnt from experience. Effectively the competence and limitations of the Director/Joint Director gets translated into QRs and goes virtually unchallenged once the case file exits the proposing directorate. Entire focus of the vetting process is concentrated on the procedural and financial aspects only.

At this point in time not only the DPP but the entire gamut of higher defence management is under review. It is requested that the readers of this blog do not underestimate their power to initiate positive change. Every little action within your ambit will add up to a significant whole and has potential to be an agent for major changes. 

Please read the article below and leave your comments to show your participation.

Lokpal and defence procurements

          In recent weeks, the Lokpal Bill has dominated public discourse. There seems to be a naïve belief that a strong Lokpal will root out all corruption. However, a law to establish a Lokpal is unlikely to be more effective than the existing laws to prohibit dowry or untouchability. To make a significant dent on the all-pervasive malaise of corruption, reforms will be needed at different levels of governance and in different sectors, particularly those prone to corruption. 

          One sector needing special attention is defence. John Githongo, Kenya’s former Permanent Secretary for governance, has called defence “the last refuge of grand corruption”. Fortunately, over the past few years, the defence sector in India has remained untainted by any major scandal. But the world over defence is rated as the most corruption-prone of all international businesses. According to Transparency International’s (T.I’s) Bribery Payers’ Index, defence has the dubious distinction of ranking among the top three most corrupt sectors, along with oil, construction and engineering.  A US Department of Commerce report asserts that the defence sector alone accounts for 50 per cent of all graft allegations. Experts estimate that bribes amount to nearly 15 percent of expenditure on arms acquisition. Hence, ministries of defence can never afford to be complacent. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that in his recent address to the top brass of the Army and Air Force, Defence Minister A.K. Antony had cautioned them about “the danger of falling prey to corrupt practices perpetrated by vested interests in the garb of aggressive marketing” and urged them to “stand guard with resolve against any such overtures”. 

          Corruption in defence hurts the nation’s vitals. It makes defence more costly and diverts scarce resources from development. Corrupt practices dramatically impact operational effectiveness and in turn the credibility of the defence forces.  Corruption scandals erode public trust, create insecurity and demoralise the armed forces.

          National security is treated as sacrosanct. Why is then defence so corruption prone? Transparency International offers some answers.

First, defence contracts are large, technically complex and extremely difficult to comprehend fully. Understanding technical specifications of highly sophisticated equipment like a modern-day multi-role aircraft can be a daunting task. Technical specifications are more specific in defence than in other sectors and hence vulnerable to manipulation.

Second, defence contracts involve huge  sums of money with all their attendant risks. All transactions are carried out under a cloak of secrecy, on the ground of national security. However, secrecy works more in favour of companies and officials rather than public interest.

Third, the task of developing technology-intensive weapon systems requires huge investment in research and development over a number of years. The arms export market is highly restrictive in nature. The supply side of the market is controlled by government and multilateral export regimes. On the demand side is generally the government or a government agency. The nature of the market is such that the equilibrium of demand and supply is hardly ever achieved. Most sellers are desperate to recover their huge investments and profiteer, whenever an opportunity arises. This desperation leads to unscrupulous practices.

Fourth, the use of agents and middlemen in defence business is widespread; they flourish despite all types of bans. Agents act as the conduits for bribes. Information about agents is, therefore, treated as commercially sensitive.

Fifth, because of the very nature of defence business, there are only a handful of suppliers. This situation leads to lack of competition. An analysis of the available data shows that more than 50 per cent purchases in defence are from a single source, making price discovery a complex task. 

Finally, offsets, which are additional investments made by suppliers over and above their sales, are a large and unregulated area, which pose a special challenge in terms of transparency. Economists see offsets as highly problematic and inefficient. The World Trade Orgranisation has banned offsets in other sectors, but the practice of offsets in defence transactions is common. In India too, offsets are now a mandatory requirement in large contracts. Assessing a fair value of offsets from the preferred supplier is never easy.

          Can an effective Lokpal make defence corruption-free? The answer is obviously no. But such an institution can help the process of investigation and prosecution of the corrupt. This has to be done in a manner that it does not hamper decision-making for defence procurements, which is already painfully slow. What can then be done to deal with corruption in defence?

One major area needing reform is the formulation of technical specifications or ‘Qualitative Requirements’.  Either on account of inadequate technical knowledge and data or due to deliberate design, these are often worked out in such a manner that only a couple of vendors or sometimes just a single vendor can meet them. This practice virtually eliminates competition and renders price — negotiations an infructuous exercise.  Unless qualitative requirements are designed broadly, by specialists, with a view to consciously encouraging competition, defence transactions will remain vulnerable to corrupt practices.

          According to an International Monetary Fund paper on the subject, “The natural policy prescription to attack corruption in military spending/procurement should be to introduce competition and reduce patronage at the level of officials receiving bribes”.  This calls for greater transparency regarding defence requirements. Sharing of information regarding future defence requirements, however sanitized, is essential for providing prospective vendors leads for the future. 

Defence budgets are often approved by parliaments without detailed scrutiny. Disclosure of costs and expenditures associated with defence purchases and stricter parliamentary oversight can help promote greater transparency.

In the process of reforming procurement procedures, defence suppliers should be fully engaged through a consultative process. While agents and middlemen are banned in India, if in actual practice they continue to operate, it is better to disclose their identities, payments and terms of their contracts.

Offsets should be subjected to rigorous standards and supervision. They should also be fully disclosed to enhance transparency and facilitate monitoring. 

No one should be under an illusion that the Lokpal law alone can effectively fight corruption. Equally vital will be the role of systemic reforms which prevent opportunities and incentives for corruption. 

(The writer is Director-General, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.)

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2011/20110625/edit.htm#4

Metro Transport Telecom Networks : Can We Ignore TDM?

Though Defence Networks are NOT commercial networks driven by revenue, still least cost per bit approach is necessary as it is funded by the taxpayer. Defence has generations of legacy networks but is now looking ahead towards a pure IP future. Is this vision justified? Operators today are re-introducing a new TDM standard for reducing the cost per bit. Should Defence networks use a pure IP or a IP-TDM combination approach? May we have an informed debate as to what is best for the country. The article below is your start point.

The fiber optic networks of many telecommunications companies in metropolitan areas are experiencing a shift from carrying primarily voice traffic to carrying a growing mix of data, video and voice traffic. Data transmissions are based on internet protocol, or IP, and carry services such as voice over IP, or VoIP, Internet access, and various video services. Video services include broadcasting streaming video and multicasting streaming video that is either identical or can be differentiated by subscriber choice, either at standard definition capacity or at HDTV capacity. In addition, these services include transmission of all of these services over a cellular network to advanced handheld devices over third generation, or 3G and 3.5G, cellular networks.

                 Data traffic volumes carried over these metropolitan area networks are surpassing voice traffic volumes. Data traffic is forecast for further growth over the coming years. This increase in data relative to voice traffic is mainly a result of the rapid growth of the Internet, video services and local area networks. Offerings of high speed data services at rates of up to 100 mega bits per second, or Mbps, have reached millions of subscribers in a number of Asian markets, including Japan and Korea. These services are offered either over fiber connections or a combination of fiber and fast access technologies, such as ADSL release 2, very high speed digital subscriber line, or VDSL, and VDSL release 2, wireless or cable networks. Similar expansion of fiber to the premise and fiber to the curb has reached millions of subscribers in the United States as well. Connecting subscribers with fiber is expected to allow for significantly higher speed services, mainly data and video services and, as a result, will require an upgrade of metro telecom equipment with technologies that enable very high speed transmissions of data services over fiber networks.

                Telecommunication companies have typically managed their data transfer capacity needs through their existing metro transport technologies. These technologies were originally designed for transporting voice services. These traditional solutions, however, are not designed to support high levels of data services traffic. Traditional networks are also inefficient when transporting data as they fail to utilize inherent differences in the type of network support that is required for the transmission of data traffic.

                 Data traffic is generally less susceptible to corruption resulting from minor time delays and less time-sensitive than voice traffic. In addition, data traffic often exhibits a bursty nature, with dynamically varying levels of utilization of communication channels, as opposed to voice traffic which normally requires constant levels of channel utilization. Substantially all of the metropolitan area networks are based on transmission equipment that is limited to transmission capacities of 2.5 Gbps and below. Telecommunications carriers are expected to upgrade their metro networks over the next few years to be able to support transmission capacities of up to 10Gbps in order to better support high bandwidth data services. A range of new solutions is being developed to address the need of carriers and service providers to be able to support higher levels of data traffic within and between metropolitan areas, commonly referred to as metro transport.

                One type of solution, consisting of a router or switch that transports packets of data, focuses on the characteristics of data traffic without supporting legacy voice and other circuit-based data services. In this type of solution, data services and legacy services are transmitted and maintained in different metro networks. Another type of solution attempts to take advantage of the characteristics of data traffic while continuing to support traditional voice traffic over a converged metro network. This second type of solution offers transmission capacities of 10 Gbps and, to a lesser extent, 2.5 Gbps, and supports transmission of both packets of data and traditional circuit-based voice and data services over the same network. Data services supported include the transmission of a range of video services, whether in standard or high definition mode, as well as over cellular networks. We may expect that the metro transport solution for the transmission of traditional voice and increased data traffic will combine the efficient transport of data services based on Ethernet protocol with high reliability voice services based on SONET/SDH protocol.

Major metro transport technologies include the following voice and/or data protocols:

SONET / SDH . SONET is the American National Standards Institute, or ANSI, standard for synchronous voice transmission on optical media. The international equivalent of SONET is synchronous digital hierarchy, or SDH. Together, these two voice protocols ensure standards to enable digital networks to interconnect internationally and existing conventional transmission systems to utilize fiber with the help of interfaces that connect network end-users, called tributary attachments.

Ethernet. Ethernet is the most widely-installed local area network, or LAN, technology. It is often used in college dormitories and office buildings. The most commonly installed Ethernet systems are called 10BASE-T and provide transmission speeds up to 10 Mbps.

RPR . Resilient packet ring, or RPR, is an emerging technology that is being designed to integrate Ethernet data protocols for the efficient transmission of data with traditional SONET voice protocols. An industry standard for RPR, IEEE 802.17, was approved in 2004. RPR is being developed as an alternative to SONET transport for networks that support high levels of data traffic, while allowing carriers to maintain traditional SONET attributes, such as resiliency. Resiliency refers to the ability to employ a back-up or alternate route in the event of a system or optical fiber failure, as well as the fast restoration of service in the event of any other failure. RPR is expected to allow carriers to conduct performance monitoring of transmission rates, traffic volume, and failures and alarms, comparable to the monitoring available with traditional SONET-based networks.

Multiprotocol Label Switching. Multiprotocol label switching, or MPLS, is a standards-approved technology for speeding up network traffic flow and making it easier to manage. MPLS involves setting up a specific path for a given sequence of packets, identified by a label put in each packet, thus saving the time needed for a router to look up the address to the next node to forward the packet to. MPLS is called multiprotocol because it works with the Internet Protocol, or IP, Asynchronous Transport Mode, or ATM, and frame relay network protocols.

In addition to moving traffic faster overall, MPLS makes it easy to manage a network for quality of service, or QoS. For these reasons, MPLS is gradually being adopted as networks begin to carry more and different mixtures of traffic.

Pseudo Wire Emulation. Pseudo wire emulation, or PWE, is a standards-approved technology for mapping different services over packet switched networks, such as MPLS. A pseudowire emulates a point-to-point link, and provides a single service which is perceived by its user as an unshared link or circuit of the chosen service, and can be used as a convergence layer for multiservice systems.

RPR’s Advantages over Existing Data and Voice Transport Protocols

RPR is a more efficient voice and data transport protocol than traditional SONET rings that have been retrofitted to handle data traffic for the following reasons:

Usage of a single fiber ring and spatial reuse capabilities. SONET utilizes only one ring of optical fibers. A second ring is available in case of a failure in the first ring, but is otherwise not used. This creates unutilized capacity in SONET, as half of the network capacity is idle during normal operations. RPR enables the use of this redundant bandwidth under normal operating conditions, while maintaining the redundancy capabilities. In addition, RPR supports spatial reuse, which allows the re-use of the same ring bandwidth over different spans of the ring.

Statistical multiplexing qualities. With SONET, data transmitted from one specific network element, or node, to another may be sent only using bandwidth that has been dedicated for that transmission. RPR increases bandwidth efficiency by allowing data transmissions to be broken up into packets and inserted in bandwidth that might have otherwise been dedicated (but not used) for a separate transmission. This process is called statistical multiplexing. When less than all network users are actively transmitting or receiving data at the same time, it results in a more efficient utilization of the total available bandwidth on a network.